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In Finding Our Way: The Future of American Early Care and Education (Washington, DC: Zero To Three, 2007), Moncrief Cochran describes a scenario where the graying of America could impact the early childhood field. Cochran explains:
"America's baby boomers number 77 million. When they leave the workforce, they will constitute the largest generation of retirees in American history.... It is clear...that we will see tremendous increases in the number of older Americans starting at about 2010. By 2030, those 65 and older will make up 20% of the American population. Adding to the financial challenge will be the 85-and-older population, which is expected to have doubled by that same year.
"Unlike young children, senior citizens vote. Aging baby boomers will press hard for policy changes that expand elder care benefits. The huge senior population is likely to push for improved health care services and for expanding Medicare to include long-term care. Any financial response to these demands will involve a commitment of public funds that could otherwise be spent on the education and care of young children. My own estimate is that public investment in ECE services must triple if the nation is to provide good quality ECE programs for all of the children birth to 4 years old whose parents require and deserve those services for their children. Elder benefits have already risen to 33% of the federal budget — a per capita expenditure for the elderly 11 times that for children. Given the projected boom in retirement over the next 25 years, competition for a public pot of finite size can only become more intense than it already has been over the past several decades."
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